library(tidyverse)
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library(here)
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library(nlme)
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Goal: analyzing the relationship between habituation patterns and the dishabituation magnitude across three datasets.

1. Dataset prepping

adult_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/adult_data.csv"))
## Rows: 18198 Columns: 11
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (6): subject, block_type, task_type, trial_type, stimulus_displayed, tas...
## dbl (5): block_number, deviant_position, trial_number, trial_looking_time, t...
## 
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
preschooler_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/preschooler_data.csv"))
## Rows: 12104 Columns: 17
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (11): subject, bing_id, child_age_group, block_type, trial_type, block_b...
## dbl  (6): age_in_months, block_number, trial_number, deviant_position, trial...
## 
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## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
infant_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/infant_data.csv"))
## Rows: 2078 Columns: 44
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (19): paper, long_cite, short_cite, doi, expt_cond, pretty_cond_name, su...
## dbl (25): expt_num, agedays, train1, train2, train3, train4, train5, train6,...
## 
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

1.1 Prep adult dataset

Focusing on only the first block and blocks with more than two trials

adult_habituation_data <- adult_d %>% 
  # fist block
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  # before the dishabituation trials
  filter(trial_number < deviant_position) %>% 
  # filtering out blocks with only two trials
  filter(deviant_position != 2) %>% 
  # only keeping the relevant information 
  select(subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time)

1.2 Prep preschooler datset

# figure out what blocks to retain
retained_blocks <- preschooler_d %>% 
  distinct(subject, block_number, trial_number, trial_type) %>% 
  filter(trial_type == "deviant") %>% 
  filter(trial_number > 2) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  mutate(deviant_trial_number = trial_number)


preschooler_habituation_data <- preschooler_d %>% 
  # these are participants that have the first block meeting the criteria 
  filter(subject %in% retained_blocks$subject) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  left_join(retained_blocks %>% select(-trial_number, -trial_type), by = c("subject", "block_number")) %>% 
  filter(trial_number < deviant_trial_number) %>% 
  select(subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time, age_in_months)

1.3 Prep infant dataset

infant_habituation_data <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train")) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = str_replace(name, "train", "")) %>% 
  rename(trial_looking_time = value) %>% 
  rename(subject = subj, age_in_days = agedays) %>% 
  select(paper, subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time, age_in_days) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(trial_number))

2. Measure prepping

2.1 Prep slope measure

2.1.1 Setting up helper function

# running the information 
get_individual_slope <- function(data){
  
  mixed_exp_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number),  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data = data,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(data$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)  # Starting values
  )
  
  # Extract random effects (individual decay rates)
  random_effects <- ranef(mixed_exp_model)$b

  # Combine fixed effect with random effect for individual slopes
  fixed_decay_rate <- fixef(mixed_exp_model)["b"]
  individual_decay_rates <- fixed_decay_rate + random_effects
  
  # Create a data frame to store the slopes for each participant
  slopes <- data.frame(
    subject = rownames(ranef(mixed_exp_model)),
    decay_rate = individual_decay_rates
  )
  
  
  mixed_exp_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number),  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data = data,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = a + b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(data$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)  # Starting values
  )
  
  # Extract random effects (individual decay rates)
  random_effects <- ranef(mixed_exp_model)$b
  fixed_decay_rate <- fixef(mixed_exp_model)["b"]
  individual_decay_rates <- fixed_decay_rate + random_effects

  # Create a data frame to store the slopes for each participant
  slopes$decay_rates_random <-individual_decay_rates
  
  return(slopes)
}

2.1.2 Demo how the curve chnages shape

# Define a function for the exponential decay
decay_model <- function(trial_number, a, b) {
  a * exp(b * trial_number)
}

# Create a data frame with different combinations of a and b
trial_data <- expand.grid(
  trial_number = seq(0, 10, by = 0.1),
  a = c(10, 20, 30),  # Different initial values
  b = c(-0.1, -0.2, -0.3)  # Different decay rates
)

# Calculate the looking time based on the decay model
trial_data <- trial_data %>%
  mutate(trial_looking_time = decay_model(trial_number, a, b))

# Plot the curves
ggplot(trial_data, aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, color = factor(a), linetype = factor(b))) +
  geom_line(size = 1) +
  labs(
    title = "Effect of Parameters 'a' and 'b' on Exponential Decay Curve",
    x = "Trial Number",
    y = "Trial Looking Time",
    color = "Initial Value (a)",
    linetype = "Decay Rate (b)"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

2.1.3 Fitting the models to all the datasets

adult_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(adult_habituation_data)
preschooler_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(preschooler_habituation_data)
infant_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(infant_habituation_data)

2.2 Prep volatility measure

2.2.1 Setting up helper function

get_volatility_measures <- function(data){
  
  # Initialize an empty list to store GARCH volatility results
garch_volatility_list <- list()

# Group by participant and calculate each volatility measure
volatility_summary <- data %>%
  group_by(subject) %>%
  summarize(
    # 1. Standard Deviation
    sd_volatility = sd(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 2. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
    mad_volatility = mean(abs(trial_looking_time - mean(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE)), na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 3. Coefficient of Variation (CV)
    cv_volatility = sd(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE) / mean(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 4. Range-Based Volatility
    range_volatility = max(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE) - min(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 5. Median Absolute Deviation (MAD - Robust Version)
    mad_robust_volatility = median(abs(trial_looking_time - median(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE)), na.rm = TRUE)
  )


# Calculate GARCH-based volatility for each participant and add to the volatility_summary
for (subject_id in unique(data$subject)) {
  # Subset data for each participant
  participant_data <- filter(data, subject == subject_id)$trial_looking_time
  
  # Specify and fit GARCH model if there are enough data points
  if (length(participant_data) > 5) {  # Minimum data points to fit GARCH - doesn't work 
    spec <- ugarchspec(variance.model = list(model = "sGARCH"), mean.model = list(armaOrder = c(1, 1)))
    fit <- tryCatch(ugarchfit(spec = spec, data = participant_data), error = function(e) NULL)
    
    if (!is.null(fit)) {
      # Extract the average conditional volatility from the GARCH model
      avg_garch_volatility <- mean(sigma(fit), na.rm = TRUE)
    } else {
      avg_garch_volatility <- NA
    }
  } else {
    avg_garch_volatility <- NA
  }
  
  # Add the GARCH volatility to the list for each subject
  garch_volatility_list[[as.character(subject_id)]] <- avg_garch_volatility
}

# Convert GARCH volatility list to data frame and merge with other volatility measures
garch_volatility_df <- data.frame(
  subject = names(garch_volatility_list),
  garch_volatility = unlist(garch_volatility_list)
)

# Combine the GARCH results with the other volatility measures
volatility_summary <- left_join(volatility_summary, garch_volatility_df, by = "subject")
  
return(volatility_summary)
}

2.2.2 Fit with each dataset

adult_volatility_measure <- get_volatility_measures(adult_habituation_data)
preschooler_volatility_measure <-  get_volatility_measures(preschooler_habituation_data)
infant_volatility_measure <-  get_volatility_measures(infant_habituation_data)
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## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

2.3 Put together all the measures

adult_measures <- adult_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(adult_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

preschooler_measures <- preschooler_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(preschooler_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

infant_measures <- infant_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(infant_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

3. Dishabituation and measure dataset prepping

3.1 Adult

3.1.1 get residual

adult_full_raw <- adult_d %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) 

adult_full_raw$trial_type_numeric <- as.numeric(as.factor(adult_full_raw$trial_type))

habituation_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number * trial_type_numeric) ,  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data = adult_full_raw,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = a + b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(adult_full_raw$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)
)

adult_full_raw$residualized_looking_time <- resid(habituation_model)

3.1.1.1 model checking

# Check residual summary statistics
summary(adult_full_raw$residualized_looking_time)
##      Min.   1st Qu.    Median      Mean   3rd Qu.      Max. 
## -15530.96  -1458.15   -432.35    -53.39    847.03  28349.62
# Histogram of residuals
hist(adult_full_raw$residualized_looking_time, breaks = 30,
     main = "Histogram of Residualized Looking Time", xlab = "Residuals")

plot(adult_full_raw$trial_looking_time, adult_full_raw$residualized_looking_time,
     xlab = "Raw Looking Time", ylab = "Residualized Looking Time",
     main = "Residuals vs Raw Looking Time")+
abline(h = 0, col = "red", lty = 2)

## integer(0)
cor(adult_full_raw$trial_looking_time, adult_full_raw$residualized_looking_time, use = "complete.obs")
## [1] 0.7852053
# Add predicted values to the dataset
adult_full_raw$fitted_values <- predict(habituation_model)

# Visualize individual fits
ggplot(adult_full_raw %>% filter(subject %in% sample(adult_full_raw %>% distinct(subject) %>% pull(), 20)), aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, color = trial_type)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = fitted_values), size = 1) +
  facet_wrap(~ subject, scales = "free_y") +
  labs(title = "Observed vs Fitted Values for Each Participant",
       x = "Trial Number", y = "Looking Time") +
  theme_minimal()

3.1.2get difference

# resid at dishabituation magnitude
adult_dishab_raw <- adult_full_raw %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  filter(trial_number == deviant_position) %>% 
  filter(deviant_position != 2) 

adult_dishab_d <- adult_dishab_raw %>% 
  select(subject, residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  rename(dishab_raw = residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  left_join(
    adult_full_raw %>%  filter(trial_number < deviant_position) %>% group_by(subject) %>% filter(trial_number == max(trial_number)),
    by = c("subject")
  ) %>% 
  mutate(dishab_diff = dishab_raw - residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  mutate(dishab_trial_num = trial_number + 1) %>% 
  select(subject, dishab_diff, dishab_trial_num)

3.1.3 combine with the measures

adult_measures_with_dishab <- adult_dishab_d %>% 
  left_join(adult_measures, by = c("subject"))

3.2 Preschooler

3.2.1. Residual

preschooler_full_raw <- preschooler_d %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) 

preschooler_full_raw$trial_type_numeric <- as.numeric(as.factor(preschooler_full_raw$trial_type))

habituation_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number * trial_type_numeric) ,  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data =  preschooler_full_raw,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = a + b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(preschooler_full_raw$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)
)


preschooler_full_raw$residualized_looking_time <- resid(habituation_model)

3.2.1.1 Model checking

# Check residual summary statistics
summary(preschooler_full_raw$residualized_looking_time)
##      Min.   1st Qu.    Median      Mean   3rd Qu.      Max. 
## -12355.00  -1675.05   -543.71    -70.44    948.89  28401.07
# Histogram of residuals
hist(preschooler_full_raw$residualized_looking_time, breaks = 30,
     main = "Histogram of Residualized Looking Time", xlab = "Residuals")

plot(preschooler_full_raw$trial_looking_time, preschooler_full_raw$residualized_looking_time,
     xlab = "Raw Looking Time", ylab = "Residualized Looking Time",
     main = "Residuals vs Raw Looking Time")+
abline(h = 0, col = "red", lty = 2)

## integer(0)
cor(preschooler_full_raw$trial_looking_time, preschooler_full_raw$residualized_looking_time, use = "complete.obs")
## [1] 0.7964103
# Add predicted values to the dataset
preschooler_full_raw$fitted_values <- predict(habituation_model)

# Visualize individual fits
ggplot(preschooler_full_raw %>% filter(subject %in% sample(preschooler_full_raw %>% distinct(subject) %>% pull(), 20)), aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, color = trial_type)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = fitted_values), size = 1) +
  facet_wrap(~ subject, scales = "free_y") +
  labs(title = "Observed vs Fitted Values for Each Participant",
       x = "Trial Number", y = "Looking Time") +
  theme_minimal()

3.2.2 Put together

#preschooler_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type  + (1 | subject), data = preschooler_d)
#preschooler_d$resid <- resid(preschooler_full_model)

# resid at dishabituation magnitude
preschooler_dishab_d <- preschooler_full_raw %>% 
  filter(subject %in% retained_blocks$subject) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  left_join(retained_blocks %>% select(-trial_number, -trial_type), by = c("subject", "block_number")) %>% 
  filter(trial_number == deviant_trial_number) %>% 
  rename(dishab_raw = residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  left_join(
    preschooler_full_raw %>% group_by(subject) %>%  filter(subject %in% retained_blocks$subject) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  left_join(retained_blocks %>% select(-trial_number, -trial_type), by = c("subject", "block_number")) %>% 
  filter(trial_number < deviant_trial_number) %>%
  group_by(subject) %>% 
  filter(trial_number == max(trial_number)) %>% 
    ungroup() %>% 
  select(subject,  residualized_looking_time), 
    by = c("subject")
  ) %>% 
  mutate(dishab_diff = dishab_raw - trial_looking_time) %>% 
  mutate(dishab_trial_num = trial_number + 1) %>% 
  select(subject, dishab_diff, dishab_trial_num, age_in_months)
  
preschooler_measures_with_dishab <- preschooler_dishab_d %>% 
  left_join(preschooler_measures, by = c("subject"))

3.3 Infants

3.1.1 Re-wrangle some datasets

# try to construct the dataset to mimic the other ones, using only first of the unexpected as the "dishabituating trials"
# figure out the trial number for the extra trial
last_trial_number <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train"), "expected1") %>% 
  rename(trainEXTRA = expected1) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))) %>% 
 group_by(paper, subj) %>% 
  summarise(max_trial = max(trial_number, na.rm = TRUE)) %>% 
  mutate(last_trial = max_trial + 1) %>% 
  select(paper, subj, last_trial) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  filter(!last_trial == -Inf)
## Warning: There was 1 warning in `mutate()`.
## ℹ In argument: `trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! NAs introduced by coercion
## Warning: There were 6 warnings in `summarise()`.
## The first warning was:
## ℹ In argument: `max_trial = max(trial_number, na.rm = TRUE)`.
## ℹ In group 53: `paper = "brandone_2009"` and `subj = "2"`.
## Caused by warning in `max()`:
## ! no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
## ℹ Run `dplyr::last_dplyr_warnings()` to see the 5 remaining warnings.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'paper'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.

3.1.2 Residuals

#preschooler_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type  + (1 | subject), data = preschooler_d)

infant_model_d <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train"), "expected1") %>% 
  rename(trainEXTRA = expected1) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))) %>% 
  left_join(last_trial_number, by = c("paper", "subj")) %>% 
  mutate(trial_type = case_when(
    is.na(trial_number) ~ "deviant", 
    TRUE ~ "background"
  )) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = case_when(
    is.na(trial_number) ~ last_trial, 
    TRUE ~ trial_number
  )) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(trial_number)) %>% 
  select(paper, subj, trial_number, trial_type, value, agedays) %>% 
  rename(trial_looking_time = value, 
         subject = subj)
## Warning: There was 1 warning in `mutate()`.
## ℹ In argument: `trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! NAs introduced by coercion
infant_model_d$trial_type_numeric <- as.numeric(as.factor(infant_model_d$trial_type))

habituation_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number * trial_type_numeric) ,  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data =  infant_model_d,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = a + b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(infant_model_d$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)
)


infant_model_d$residualized_looking_time <- resid(habituation_model)

3.1.2.1 model checking

# Check residual summary statistics
summary(infant_model_d$residualized_looking_time)
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -37.7196  -8.2243  -2.7813  -0.1173   4.7066 104.6843
# Histogram of residuals
hist(infant_model_d$residualized_looking_time, breaks = 30,
     main = "Histogram of Residualized Looking Time", xlab = "Residuals")

plot(infant_model_d$trial_looking_time, infant_model_d$residualized_looking_time,
     xlab = "Raw Looking Time", ylab = "Residualized Looking Time",
     main = "Residuals vs Raw Looking Time")+
abline(h = 0, col = "red", lty = 2)

## integer(0)
cor(infant_model_d$trial_looking_time, infant_model_d$residualized_looking_time, use = "complete.obs")
## [1] 0.8565041
# Add predicted values to the dataset
infant_model_d$fitted_values <- predict(habituation_model)

# Visualize individual fits
ggplot(infant_model_d %>% filter(subject %in% sample(infant_model_d %>% distinct(subject) %>% pull(), 20)), aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, color = trial_type)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = fitted_values), size = 1) +
  facet_wrap(~ subject, scales = "free_y") +
  labs(title = "Observed vs Fitted Values for Each Participant",
       x = "Trial Number", y = "Looking Time") +
  theme_minimal()
## `geom_line()`: Each group consists of only one observation.
## ℹ Do you need to adjust the group aesthetic?
## `geom_line()`: Each group consists of only one observation.
## ℹ Do you need to adjust the group aesthetic?

3.1.3 Put things together

duplicate_subjects <- infant_model_d %>% group_by(paper, subject) %>% filter(trial_type != "deviant") %>%  filter(trial_number == max(trial_number)) %>% select(paper, subject, trial_number, residualized_looking_time, agedays) %>% group_by(paper, subject) %>% count() %>% filter(n > 1)
infant_dishab_d <- infant_model_d %>% 
  filter(trial_type == "deviant") %>% 
  filter(!(paper %in% duplicate_subjects$paper & subject %in% duplicate_subjects$subject)) %>% 
  select(paper, subject, residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  rename(dishab_raw = residualized_looking_time) %>% 
  left_join(
    infant_model_d %>% group_by(paper, subject) %>% filter(trial_type != "deviant") %>%  filter(trial_number == max(trial_number)) %>% select(paper, subject, trial_number, residualized_looking_time, agedays) %>% filter(!(paper %in% duplicate_subjects$paper & subject %in% duplicate_subjects$subject)), 
    by = c("paper", "subject")
  ) %>% 
  mutate(dishab_diff = dishab_raw - residualized_looking_time) %>% 
   mutate(dishab_trial_num = trial_number + 1) %>% 
  select(paper, subject, dishab_diff, dishab_trial_num, agedays)
infant_measure_with_dishab <- infant_dishab_d %>% 
  select(paper, subject, dishab_trial_num, dishab_diff, agedays) %>% 
  left_join(infant_measures, by = c("subject"))

4. Visualization

4.1. Raw habituation data Visualizatino

4.1.1 Adults

adult_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = subject)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) 

adult_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = subject)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) +
  scale_y_log10()

adult_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") 

adult_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") +
  scale_y_log10()

4.1.2 Preschoolers

preschooler_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = subject)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) 

preschooler_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = subject)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) +
  scale_y_log10()

preschooler_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") 

preschooler_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") +
  scale_y_log10()

4.1.3 Infants

infant_habituation_data %>% 
  mutate(individual_infant = paste0(paper, subject)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = individual_infant)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) 

infant_habituation_data %>% 
  mutate(individual_infant = paste0(paper, subject)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, group = individual_infant))  + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  geom_line(alpha = .1) +
  scale_y_log10()

infant_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") 

infant_habituation_data %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .1) + 
  stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot", geom = "pointrange", color = "red") +
  scale_y_log10()

4.2 Raw dishabituation data visualization

adult_measures_with_dishab %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_density(alpha = .1, aes(fill = as.factor(dishab_trial_num)))

preschooler_measures_with_dishab %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_density(alpha = .1, aes(fill = as.factor(dishab_trial_num)))

infant_measure_with_dishab %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_density()

4.3 Measure and data predictions

full_d <- bind_rows(
  infant_measure_with_dishab %>% mutate(group = "infants"), 
  preschooler_measures_with_dishab %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"), 
  adult_measures_with_dishab %>% mutate(group = "adults")
)

4.3.1 Slope measures vs resid across age groups

full_d %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = decay_rate, y = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(~group, scales = "free") + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") 
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

full_d %>% 
  select(decay_rate, decay_rates_random, dishab_diff, group) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = c("decay_rate", "decay_rates_random"), names_to = "decay_rate_type", values_to = "val") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = val, y = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(decay_rate_type~group, scales = "free") + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") 
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# log would remove the negative ones 
full_d %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = decay_rate, y = log(dishab_diff))) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(~group, scales = "free") + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") 
## Warning in log(dishab_diff): NaNs produced
## Warning in log(dishab_diff): NaNs produced
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 413 rows containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_smooth()`).
## Warning: Removed 413 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

4.3.2 Volatility measurs across age groups

full_d %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = ends_with("volatility"), names_to = "volatility_type", values_to =  "volatility_measure") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = volatility_measure, y = dishab_diff)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(volatility_type~group, scales = "free") + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") 
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 667 rows containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_smooth()`).
## Warning: Removed 667 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

5. Models

5.1 Adults

5.1.2 Decay Rate only

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -27130.5  -2151.3   -371.5   1617.9  17079.4 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)    448.5      473.7   0.947  0.34495   
## decay_rate   -6707.0     2456.3  -2.731  0.00694 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3983 on 184 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.03894,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.03372 
## F-statistic: 7.456 on 1 and 184 DF,  p-value: 0.006938
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random , data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -28838.3  -2039.3   -423.6   1412.6  16829.7 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)        -1.500e+09  9.258e+08  -1.621    0.107
## decay_rates_random -7.312e+10  4.512e+10  -1.621    0.107
## 
## Residual standard error: 4034 on 184 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.01407,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.008714 
## F-statistic: 2.626 on 1 and 184 DF,  p-value: 0.1068

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -26930.1  -2194.7   -427.5   1555.9  16899.4 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)  1348.32     989.57   1.363  0.17472   
## decay_rate  -7145.20    2498.56  -2.860  0.00474 **
## age           -33.13      31.95  -1.037  0.30111   
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3993 on 182 degrees of freedom
##   (1 observation deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.04478,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.03428 
## F-statistic: 4.266 on 2 and 182 DF,  p-value: 0.01547
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -28679.9  -2024.8   -544.5   1315.6  16689.0 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)        -1.633e+09  9.427e+08  -1.732   0.0849 .
## decay_rates_random -7.959e+10  4.595e+10  -1.732   0.0849 .
## age                -2.749e+01  3.239e+01  -0.849   0.3972  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4048 on 182 degrees of freedom
##   (1 observation deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.01804,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.007253 
## F-statistic: 1.672 on 2 and 182 DF,  p-value: 0.1907

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, 
##     data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -30624.0  -1839.7   -202.3   1491.8  16257.9 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   -5.099e+02  1.145e+03  -0.445  0.65672    
## decay_rate    -1.211e+04  2.945e+03  -4.114 5.91e-05 ***
## age           -2.676e+01  3.145e+01  -0.851  0.39589    
## sd_volatility  4.041e-01  1.342e-01   3.011  0.00298 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3914 on 180 degrees of freedom
##   (2 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.09102,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.07587 
## F-statistic: 6.008 on 3 and 180 DF,  p-value: 0.0006356
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age + sd_volatility, 
##     data = adult_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -31862  -1800   -198   1212  16299 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)        -3.770e+09  1.224e+09  -3.080  0.00239 **
## decay_rates_random -1.837e+11  5.965e+10  -3.080  0.00239 **
## age                -2.275e+01  3.203e+01  -0.710  0.47838   
## sd_volatility       3.981e-01  1.498e-01   2.657  0.00859 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3990 on 180 degrees of freedom
##   (2 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.05534,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.0396 
## F-statistic: 3.515 on 3 and 180 DF,  p-value: 0.01636

5.2 Preschoolers

5.1.2 Decay Rate only

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate , data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -14488.0     -4.8    562.9   1007.0   4560.9 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -8515.3      418.5 -20.345  < 2e-16 ***
## decay_rate  -14044.6     1500.8  -9.358 4.52e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 2460 on 124 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4139, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4092 
## F-statistic: 87.57 on 1 and 124 DF,  p-value: 4.523e-16
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random , data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -16378.0    -43.3    737.9   1166.6   5452.7 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        -1.878e+09  2.464e+08  -7.624 5.56e-12 ***
## decay_rates_random -3.825e+10  5.017e+09  -7.624 5.56e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 2651 on 124 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3191, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3136 
## F-statistic: 58.12 on 1 and 124 DF,  p-value: 5.564e-12

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4237.5  -148.8   271.7   721.7  1695.6 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   -11092.58    2166.91  -5.119 1.66e-05 ***
## decay_rate    -20054.70    3030.35  -6.618 2.51e-07 ***
## age_in_months     11.18      30.32   0.369    0.715    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1367 on 30 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.6085, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5824 
## F-statistic: 23.32 on 2 and 30 DF,  p-value: 7.766e-07
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months, 
##     data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4920.0   -32.7   363.0   854.3  1606.8 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        -2.605e+09  5.076e+08  -5.132  1.6e-05 ***
## decay_rates_random -5.306e+10  1.034e+10  -5.132  1.6e-05 ***
## age_in_months       1.260e+01  3.521e+01   0.358    0.723    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1565 on 30 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4873, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4531 
## F-statistic: 14.25 on 2 and 30 DF,  p-value: 4.451e-05

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, 
##     data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4256.4   -88.0   189.3   636.2  1603.6 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   -1.270e+04  2.335e+03  -5.441 7.44e-06 ***
## decay_rate    -2.277e+04  3.396e+03  -6.704 2.36e-07 ***
## age_in_months  1.374e+01  2.958e+01   0.465    0.646    
## sd_volatility  2.483e-01  1.537e-01   1.616    0.117    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1332 on 29 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.6409, Adjusted R-squared:  0.6037 
## F-statistic: 17.25 on 3 and 29 DF,  p-value: 1.277e-06
vif(lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab))
##    decay_rate age_in_months sd_volatility 
##      1.453331      1.101150      1.338485
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months + 
##     sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -5024.6  -138.3   247.3   681.6  1548.8 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        -3.567e+09  6.224e+08  -5.731 3.34e-06 ***
## decay_rates_random -7.264e+10  1.268e+10  -5.731 3.34e-06 ***
## age_in_months       2.504e+01  3.319e+01   0.754   0.4567    
## sd_volatility       4.567e-01  1.924e-01   2.373   0.0245 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1456 on 29 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.5706, Adjusted R-squared:  0.5262 
## F-statistic: 12.85 on 3 and 29 DF,  p-value: 1.616e-05

6.1 Infants

6.1.1 Decay Rate only

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate , data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -54.576  -6.214  -1.777   5.183  54.590 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  10.9875     0.7991  13.751  < 2e-16 ***
## decay_rate   13.8822     4.3415   3.198  0.00142 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.96 on 1309 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.00775,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.006992 
## F-statistic: 10.22 on 1 and 1309 DF,  p-value: 0.001419
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random , data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -54.656  -6.080  -1.654   4.724  50.647 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)          -3.4963     0.9043  -3.866 0.000116 ***
## decay_rates_random -120.5377     8.1717 -14.751  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 12.98 on 1309 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1425, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1419 
## F-statistic: 217.6 on 1 and 1309 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -54.550  -6.281  -1.752   5.613  54.829 
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 11.774235   1.234468   9.538  < 2e-16 ***
## decay_rate  14.258611   4.456346   3.200  0.00141 ** 
## agedays     -0.002635   0.004264  -0.618  0.53663    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.17 on 1249 degrees of freedom
##   (59 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.008376,   Adjusted R-squared:  0.006788 
## F-statistic: 5.275 on 2 and 1249 DF,  p-value: 0.005233
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -54.558  -6.148  -1.638   5.044  50.720 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        -2.815e+00  1.238e+00  -2.273   0.0232 *  
## decay_rates_random -1.230e+02  8.366e+00 -14.701   <2e-16 ***
## agedays            -3.537e-03  3.953e-03  -0.895   0.3711    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.13 on 1249 degrees of freedom
##   (59 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1477, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1464 
## F-statistic: 108.2 on 2 and 1249 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, 
##     data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -59.699  -5.982  -1.475   5.299  51.372 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)    -2.773484   2.190734  -1.266  0.20575    
## decay_rate    -16.136666   5.948105  -2.713  0.00676 ** 
## agedays         0.002199   0.004182   0.526  0.59911    
## sd_volatility   0.651149   0.078048   8.343  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.72 on 1216 degrees of freedom
##   (91 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.06617,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.06386 
## F-statistic: 28.72 on 3 and 1216 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% summary()
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays + sd_volatility, 
##     data = infant_measure_with_dishab)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -55.867  -6.155  -1.601   4.967  49.940 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        -3.129e+00  1.310e+00  -2.388   0.0171 *  
## decay_rates_random -1.123e+02  1.004e+01 -11.188   <2e-16 ***
## agedays            -2.537e-03  3.986e-03  -0.636   0.5246    
## sd_volatility       1.020e-01  6.556e-02   1.556   0.1200    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 13.11 on 1216 degrees of freedom
##   (91 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1482, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1461 
## F-statistic: 70.52 on 3 and 1216 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

6. Summarizing Model results

6.1 Combine Decay Rate Only models

bind_rows(
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term == "decay_rate") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("")

bind_rows(
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term == "decay_rates_random") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("")

6.2 Combine Decay Rate + Age Models

bind_rows(
   lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term)

bind_rows(
   lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term)

6.3 Combine Decay Rate + Age + Volatility Models

bind_rows(
   lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term, scales = "free")

bind_rows(
   lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(dishab_diff ~ decay_rates_random + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_dishab) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term, scales = "free")